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Factory report card, August 2026: who is actually executing?

The verdict

Grade factories on who owns a movement programme, not on case finishing, and the hierarchy reorders. ERF, ZF, VSF and BTF are the names executing. VSF is still the safest pick on modern Rolex sports, but its free-sprung claim is being oversold — its balance carries no rim weights where the JH3235 does. The Patek bench has been frozen for eighteen months, and APS is gone with nothing confirmed in its place.

Most factory tier lists going around this month were written for a market that has already moved on. They rank case finishing and bracelet end-links, which is how you separated factories in 2023. They miss the thing that actually decided the last twelve months: who owns a movement programme and who is renting one.

A factory that owns its movement can change it. A factory buying the same base as four rivals can only re-case what everyone else is getting, and it loses the moment someone with a machine shop decides to care. Grade on that and four names are doing well right now — VSF, ERF, ZF and BTF. One newcomer has beaten the market leader on the exact spec everyone is quoting at each other. And the whole Patek bench has gone quiet for over a year.

What “executing” means in 2026

Three things, in order of how much they matter.

Owning the calibre comes first. A movement that only one factory gets — even if someone else physically builds it — can be re-specced, re-regulated and sorted to that factory’s standard. The VSF VS3235 is the clearest case. It is Dandong-built and shares its design with the plain DD3235, but VSF gets it as an exclusive batch and sorts it in house. It is VSF-exclusive, not VSF-made, and that is the whole reason VSF can ship a revision when Dandong’s other customers cannot.

Then batch discipline. A factory is only as good as its worst month. There is no recall in this market, so a bad batch keeps circulating for years next to the good one under the same version label.

Then whether they can ship at all. A factory that cannot ship is not a factory, whatever the spec sheet says. Three of the biggest changes in the hierarchy this year came from enforcement, not engineering.

Who is doing well

ERF — the story of the year. ERF came from nowhere and did the one thing nobody expects a new factory to do: it went after the balance. The ERF 3235 runs the JH3235 design with a blue hairspring, no regulator index, and rate set by inertia — real Microstella-style weights on the balance rim, the same principle the genuine Cal. 3235 uses. Its plate is the closest visual match to a gen 3235 anyone is shipping. It showed up on the Datejust 41 126334 first, including the green ombré on Oyster, and has since moved to the Submariner. A first-year factory leading on movement design is rare. ERF is the name climbing fastest at the part that is hardest to get right.

ZF — the biggest winner on structure. ZF’s Panerai bench was never in doubt. The crown-guard lever geometry and sandwich dials need tooling nobody else bothered to build, and that has not changed in five years. What changed this year is what ZF picked up. The free-sprung 4302 programme moved to ZF, and so did the 4401. ZF now ships a 26240 Royal Oak Chronograph on the SA4401 in a V2 with a real free-sprung balance — weighted screws, no regulator index — on a built-in flyback layout rather than a chronograph module bolted onto a base. Inheriting two movement programmes in one year and shipping a revision on both is not luck.

VSF — still the safest name on modern Rolex sports. The Submariner 126610LN, the GMT Sprite 126720VTNR, the Datejust 41 and the Seamaster 300M on the clone Cal. 8800 are all still the default answer, and the VS3235’s roughly 70-hour reserve holds up in the metal, not just on the listing. VSF’s Maxi dial print depth and fluted bezel work are still what everyone else gets measured against. The grade is an A. The asterisk is below.

BTF — the Daytona, uncontested. BTF’s case work, bracelet end-links and 4130/4131 chronograph clone on the 126500LN and 116500LN set the benchmark, and there is no serious second opinion right now. QF has quietly become the bezel factory — its ceramic on the GMT-Master II 126710BLRO and 126710BLNR is closest to gen for colour and finish, and QF is one of the houses running the JH3235 with weights.

Who is slipping — starting with the biggest name

VSF’s free-sprung claim is being oversold, including by people selling it. VSF did launch a free-sprung VS3235 this year. It arrived on the titanium Yacht-Master 226627 in June 2026 and rolled across the Datejust 41 126334 range in July. That is real, and the old line that Dandong movements are never free-sprung is now itself the mistake.

The honest caveat Here is the bound. VSF took off the regulator post above the balance, but its version has no regulating weights on the balance rim. The JH3235 that ERF and QF run does have them. So several teardowns read VSF’s as free-sprung in looks rather than in function, since the rate is still being set at the stud above the balance — and reporting suggests VSF plans to keep the weightless design across its DD-series movements. Both readings are fair; the market has not settled it. What is not fair is a listing that prints “free sprung” and stops there, because older non-free-sprung VS3235 stock is still going around under the same reference. Assume nothing about a given piece until the batch is confirmed.

The Patek bench has stopped moving. BBF is still the right call on the Nautilus 5711 — not BBA, despite the mislabelling that keeps coming back on dealer sites — and its edge is real: a dial sourced through SW Factory rather than modified twice, and deep plate engraving on the 324 clone where 3K uses shallow laser text. But BBF, 3K and DDF are all running the same 324 base, and the difference has narrowed to dial supply and engraving depth. Nobody has solved the eagle’s beak lug. DDF gets the most pronounced beak tip and it is still not right. On the 5712, PPF is still the answer on a reference that punishes everyone — the power reserve, moonphase and small-seconds asymmetry give a QC inspector four more ways to fail than a 5711 has. The Patek bench is not bad. It is frozen, and frozen for eighteen months in this market is a downgrade.

Audemars Piguet is the real hole. APS was best in class on the tapisserie dial and ran the most stable 3120 in the market. After the enforcement action in early-to-mid May 2026 that swept up the APSF distribution network, no new stock has reached dealers, order books were suspended, and there is no published restart date. Treat APS as gone: not a current production line, not a recommendation. ZF’s SA4401 26240 is the strongest thing standing in that gap, and DDF is shipping the reference on a DD4401 — but neither has been out long enough to call a confirmed replacement for the 26240 chronograph or the 26400 Offshore. TOP Factory still covers the 15500ST and only the 15500ST. Anyone telling you the AP gap is filled is guessing ahead of the evidence.

One note that affects every grade above. A lot of the “reviews” you will find on this are one syndicated blog network. Susanreviews, wristwatchspot, menwatchesreview and their siblings publish word-for-word identical sentences, and dealer listings copy from the same source. Four sites agreeing is one source reprinted four times, not four opinions. The claims worth trusting are the ones with a teardown behind them, on a forum where someone can argue back.

How to check any of this yourself

Read the movement code, not the marketing word. DD3235 and VS3235 are the Dandong line. JH3235 is Jinghe and carries weights. SA4401 and DD4401 are two different houses on the same AP chronograph reference. If a listing says “free sprung” without naming the calibre, it is telling you nothing.

Then look at the balance rim. Weights on the rim, adjusted by inertia, is the gen principle. A bare rim with the regulator post removed is the other approach, and both ship under the same two words.

Then ask for the batch or version, in writing, before anything else. Not the factory. The batch.

Cases and bracelets are the last thing to grade this year, because every serious factory has already solved them. Grade the movement programme, confirm the batch, and let the case work be the tiebreaker rather than the argument. The factory name on the listing tells you what someone had in stock last year.

Current as of August 2026. Grades move when a factory ships a revision or stops shipping altogether — this sheet gets rewritten rather than patched.

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Read next: every movement base by factory · the 2026 factory map · the full index